This September, we expect the stock market to face a mix of seasonal headwinds, economic uncertainty, and cautious optimism. Here's a breakdown of what to expect:

Seasonal Weakness Historically

•   September is statistically the weakest month for the S&P 500, averaging a 0.68% decline since 1950, and a 2% average drop over the past decade.

•   This pattern is often attributed to investor psychology and self-fulfilling expectations, where anticipated weakness leads to selling pressure.

• Real estate stocks, in particular, tend to underperform in September, rising in only 39% of Septembers since 1950.

Key Economic Indicators to Watch

Several major economic events could shape market sentiment this month:

Following up on our "Knowables" piece from late July, which summarized the key changes in tax law, we wanted to revisit how these updates might affect investors. While there was some chatter about the changes, the reality is that for most investors, the impact is quite minimal outside these two items below. Sure, it's nice that Social Security benefits are no longer taxed, but in the grand scheme, this change won't have a significant effect on the lifestyle or investment decisions for our typical investor.

That said, the tax law revisions do highlight a couple of important areas. Let’s dive deeper into the two primary takeaways from these changes:

The White House's "One Big Beautiful Bill," signed into law in July 2025, introduces changes to U.S. tax policy, particularly benefiting middle and working-class Americans. Look for our next Controllables memo to learn where opportunities may be created or enhanced by this new tax bill.

 Permanent Tax Cuts: Extends and makes permanent the individual tax rate reductions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).

In our effort to keep you informed, this memo is a brief synopsis of the current economic landscape, along with several key factors that are shaping our outlook. As customary, we will be following this memo in a few weeks with our “Controllables” memo – how prudent investors may respond to these events.

In the latest “Knowables” memo, we provided our observations of the main economic and political topics and their potential implications for investors. This memo is a continuation, highlighting areas of investment that will likely be more resilient and potentially prosper more than other assets, given current financial market conditions.

Navigating the investment landscape in 2025 has proved to be a challenging task. Investors are most concerned about a confluence of political and economic factors that create uncertainty and potential risks to their portfolios. Below we identify key topics on investors’ minds and the outcomes that arise.

In our latest newsletter, we discussed the compelling case of European equities. Here are the key points from that discussion:

A trend worth highlighting is evolving among European equities, as evidenced by the strong performance of the MSCI Europe Index, which gained 8.6% during Q1. Europe is significantly outpacing U.S. benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, both of which experienced modest declines. For many investors, this shift has sparked new interest in the opportunities global markets can provide. In this memo, we take a closer look at the key drivers behind Europe’s equity resurgence and explore why international diversification may play a more important role in your portfolio moving forward.

Today, the global financial markets are experiencing significant declines following President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs. Dubbed "Liberation Day," these measures include a universal 10% tariff on all imports, with additional "reciprocal tariffs" targeting specific countries such as China and the European Union.

As mentioned in our previous Market Alert, the recent market volatility was anticipated. In light of the recent price drops, we are adjusting our recommended allocations. Below are the broad changes we suggest, which may vary slightly based on your personal situation:

In times of volatility, it becomes important to recall the words of Winston Churchill, “… an optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.” During this difficult time, you will start seeing us take advantage of opportunities for you.

In this edition of our “knowables” newsletter we’ll be covering the Trump administration’s announcement of significant tariff measures. Tariffs are likely to be a big topic of conversation this week, given the President’s promise to impose the postponed tariffs on March 4th.

As mentioned previously, this newsletter follows our "Knowables" piece we sent a few weeks back. Contained within, we outline some investment ideas we can act upon or control, considering the things that we know.